June 13, 2024 06:55 GMT
SONIA Futures Under Some Pressure Following Fed
STIR
Feedthrough from yesterday’s FOMC decision takes the edge off yesterday’s SONIA rally, with futures last flat to -4.5 through the blues.
- The reds are under the most pressure on the day.
- BoE-dated OIS is 0.5-3.0bp firmer across ’24 contracts, showing ~38bp of cuts vs. ~41bp at yesterday’s close.
- RICS house price balance was much softer than expected on the back of higher-for-longer interest rate worry, although the data won’t be a market mover for GBP STIRs & gilts.
- Polling suggested Labour leader Starmer provided a better showing than PM Sunak during last night’s Sky leaders’ debate, while the Labour Party maintains a very wide lead in the polls.
- Tomorrow’s Bank of England/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey. Provides the next domestic data point of note.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Jun-24 | 5.202 | +0.2 |
Aug-24 | 5.104 | -9.6 |
Sep-24 | 5.030 | -17.0 |
Nov-24 | 4.912 | -28.8 |
Dec-24 | 4.823 | -37.8 |
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