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SONIA Futures Under Some Pressure Following Fed

STIR

Feedthrough from yesterday’s FOMC decision takes the edge off yesterday’s SONIA rally, with futures last flat to -4.5 through the blues.

  • The reds are under the most pressure on the day.
  • BoE-dated OIS is 0.5-3.0bp firmer across ’24 contracts, showing ~38bp of cuts vs. ~41bp at yesterday’s close.
  • RICS house price balance was much softer than expected on the back of higher-for-longer interest rate worry, although the data won’t be a market mover for GBP STIRs & gilts.
  • Polling suggested Labour leader Starmer provided a better showing than PM Sunak during last night’s Sky leaders’ debate, while the Labour Party maintains a very wide lead in the polls.
  • Tomorrow’s Bank of England/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey. Provides the next domestic data point of note.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Jun-245.202+0.2
Aug-245.104-9.6
Sep-245.030-17.0
Nov-244.912-28.8
Dec-244.823-37.8
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Feedthrough from yesterday’s FOMC decision takes the edge off yesterday’s SONIA rally, with futures last flat to -4.5 through the blues.

  • The reds are under the most pressure on the day.
  • BoE-dated OIS is 0.5-3.0bp firmer across ’24 contracts, showing ~38bp of cuts vs. ~41bp at yesterday’s close.
  • RICS house price balance was much softer than expected on the back of higher-for-longer interest rate worry, although the data won’t be a market mover for GBP STIRs & gilts.
  • Polling suggested Labour leader Starmer provided a better showing than PM Sunak during last night’s Sky leaders’ debate, while the Labour Party maintains a very wide lead in the polls.
  • Tomorrow’s Bank of England/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey. Provides the next domestic data point of note.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Jun-245.202+0.2
Aug-245.104-9.6
Sep-245.030-17.0
Nov-244.912-28.8
Dec-244.823-37.8