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SONIA Steady, Showing 42bp Of BoE Cuts Through '24

STIR

BoE-dated OIS is little changed on the day, showing ~14bp of cuts through the August MPC and ~42bp of easing through year end.

  • SONIA futures are -1.0 to +1.5.
  • Bunds have recovered from overnight lows that came as Biden struggled in the first U.S. Presidential debate.
  • Modest positive revisions in the final UK Q1 GDP data shouldn’t be a market mover.
  • The same holds true for the softer-than expected Lloyds business barometer reading.
  • Pre-weekend focus now moves to European national flash CPI readings and the U.S. PCE data.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Aug-245.060-14.0
Sep-245.004-19.6
Nov-244.870-33.1
Dec-244.780-42.1
Feb-254.649-55.1
Mar-254.566-63.4
May-254.447-75.3
Jun-254.367-83.3

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg. 2025 meeting dates are estimated.

MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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