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Sources Raise Likelihood of June Cut, But Markets Unwavered

ECB
  • ECB policymakers are said to be overwhelmingly in favour of the June meeting for a first interest rate cut, while some policymakers floated the idea on the sidelines of this week's meeting for a second rate cut in July - a proposal made in order to win over a smaller group of policymakers that are pushing for April easing, according to Reuters sources.
  • The Reuters piece goes on to note about the upcoming ECB operational framework review, writing that the timing of a first rate cut would also influence how a new operational framework would be implemented. The Reuters source added that tweaks to the minimum reserve requirement are not currently part of the proposals.
  • ECB-dated OIS broadly unaffected by the latest RTRS sources piece, with today's ECB speak already signalling a growing consensus for a June cut. Speculation r.e. a second cut in July has similarly not prompted major moves.
  • Current ECB cut pricing table below:
Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
Apr-243.865-4.3
Jun-243.650-25.8
Jul-243.468-44.0
Sep-243.235-67.3
Oct-243.053-85.5
Dec-242.863-104.5
Jan-252.717-119.1
Source: MNI/Bloomberg
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