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SOUTH AFRICA: Fitch Flags Potential For Future Rating Upgrade, Tsy Sells Bonds

SOUTH AFRICA
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  • Fitch said in a statement that "it could be positive for the sovereign's rating if debt does follow the path projected by the government," signalling that South Africa's fiscal consolidation plan might open the path to a rating upgrade, but also warned that Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana's forecasts are optimistic. Fitch noted that their "debt forecast is higher than that of the government." Separately, Bank of America wrote that South Africa's credit-rating outlook could be changed to positive and the nation could see its first rating upgrade in 2026 if it delivers on its growth and debt stabilisation targets.
  • The African National Congress (ANC) in KwaZulu-Natal sharply criticised its provincial coalition partners from the Democratic Alliance (DA) and Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), drawing a pushback from IFP MEC Thulasizwe Buthelezi, who called the remarks from his colleagues from the ANC "the highest form of political imbecility." This highlights provincial-level tensions between partners from the government of national unity (GNU), which continue to undermine the national-level pact.
  • Foreign policy analyst Peter Fabicius penned an op-ed for the Daily Maverick noting that South Africa will be watching the US election with angst as "big uncertainties for SA and Africa about the next US administration include the fate of the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR)."
  • The National Treasury holds an auction for ZAR1.25bn of 10% 2033 bonds, ZAR1.25bn of 10.875% 2038 bonds and ZAR1.25bn of 9% 2040 bonds.
  • South Africa's S&P Global PMI deteriorated to 50.6 in October from 51.0 prior, staying within expansionary territory.
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  • Fitch said in a statement that "it could be positive for the sovereign's rating if debt does follow the path projected by the government," signalling that South Africa's fiscal consolidation plan might open the path to a rating upgrade, but also warned that Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana's forecasts are optimistic. Fitch noted that their "debt forecast is higher than that of the government." Separately, Bank of America wrote that South Africa's credit-rating outlook could be changed to positive and the nation could see its first rating upgrade in 2026 if it delivers on its growth and debt stabilisation targets.
  • The African National Congress (ANC) in KwaZulu-Natal sharply criticised its provincial coalition partners from the Democratic Alliance (DA) and Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), drawing a pushback from IFP MEC Thulasizwe Buthelezi, who called the remarks from his colleagues from the ANC "the highest form of political imbecility." This highlights provincial-level tensions between partners from the government of national unity (GNU), which continue to undermine the national-level pact.
  • Foreign policy analyst Peter Fabicius penned an op-ed for the Daily Maverick noting that South Africa will be watching the US election with angst as "big uncertainties for SA and Africa about the next US administration include the fate of the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR)."
  • The National Treasury holds an auction for ZAR1.25bn of 10% 2033 bonds, ZAR1.25bn of 10.875% 2038 bonds and ZAR1.25bn of 9% 2040 bonds.
  • South Africa's S&P Global PMI deteriorated to 50.6 in October from 51.0 prior, staying within expansionary territory.