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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GLOBAL
- Geopolitical uncertainty combined with hawkish response to US CPI print continue to support the Dollar broadly, with DXY Index surging above the 108 level.
- USDKRW broke above the 1,300 level this week and is currently trading at its highest level since April 2009.
- We previously saw that South Korean market and economic data could be used as a good proxy of the current state of the economic activity.
- The chart below shows that an extremely weak KRW has been associated with global PMI falling significantly below the 50-line thresholds, increasing the odds of a global recession.
- Economic data showed earlier this month that momentum on South Korea exports continues to fade as China slowdown combined with the surge in recession fears globally (particularly in Europe) have been weighing on the global economic activity.
- Macro analysts have historically used South Korea exports as one of the key input when computing a global leading economic indicator.
- The chart below shows that SK exports have strongly led equities EPS by 3 months in the past two decades, therefore further deceleration in exports and global trade could continue to weigh on risky assets in the near to medium term.
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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