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South Korea Exports Lead US Earnings

EQUITIES
  • In the past few years, we have seen that economic indicators of some heavy-exporter nations such as South Korea have historically led DM indicators.
  • Hence, analysts have traditionally used SK exports as one of the key inputs (among other macroeconomic and financial variables) when computing an aggregate leading indicator.
  • The chart below shows how strongly the annual growth of SK exports have led SP500 earnings (by 3M) in the past two decades (by 3 months).
  • According to this chart, the sharp rebound in SK Exports (up 41% YoY) is still pricing further strength in US equities EPS for the coming months.
  • In addition, the global reopening in the US and other developed nations could continue to push risky assets (i.e. equities) to new highs.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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