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SOUTH KOREA: Manufacturers' Expect Slower Export Growth Trend

SOUTH KOREA
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Data at the start of the session on South Korean business sentiment highlighted deteriorating manufacturing sentiment. The headline manufacturing read of 66 (lows back to early 2023) doesn't suggest much near recovery in GDP growth. This is line with current BoK and government thinking though, with growth expectations skewed lower in recent months. 

  • Our BoK preview noted earlier we still expect the central bank to be on hold tomorrow though, given FX weakness/financial stability concerns.
  • Another part of the manufacturing survey looks at the export outlook. The chart below plots manufacturers' export expectations and full month export growth.
  • It is pointing to a further slowing in y/y export growth momentum for Nov/Dec. Recall though the first 20-days of export figures for Nov showed growth up 5.8%y/y.
  • Export growth may have still slowed in the final part of Nov. Another possibility is actual export growth is front running due to trade concerns for 2025. Note we get full month Nov trade figures on Dec 1. 

Fig 1: South Korea Exports & Manufacturers' Export Expectations 

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Data at the start of the session on South Korean business sentiment highlighted deteriorating manufacturing sentiment. The headline manufacturing read of 66 (lows back to early 2023) doesn't suggest much near recovery in GDP growth. This is line with current BoK and government thinking though, with growth expectations skewed lower in recent months. 

  • Our BoK preview noted earlier we still expect the central bank to be on hold tomorrow though, given FX weakness/financial stability concerns.
  • Another part of the manufacturing survey looks at the export outlook. The chart below plots manufacturers' export expectations and full month export growth.
  • It is pointing to a further slowing in y/y export growth momentum for Nov/Dec. Recall though the first 20-days of export figures for Nov showed growth up 5.8%y/y.
  • Export growth may have still slowed in the final part of Nov. Another possibility is actual export growth is front running due to trade concerns for 2025. Note we get full month Nov trade figures on Dec 1. 

Fig 1: South Korea Exports & Manufacturers' Export Expectations 

Keep reading...Show less