May 02, 2024 01:53 GMT
South Korea, Taiwan PMIs Point To Modest Global Trade Growth
ASIA
Metals bulletEM BulletHomepageCommoditiesEmerging Market NewsEnergy BulletsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
As we have noted in the past, the average PMI prints for South Korea and Taiwan have a reasonable relationship with global trade growth. The chart below plots the update post this morning's PMI prints against y/y global trade volumes.
- The PMI average is holding close to recent highs, just under 50.0. Some slippage in the South Korean PMI, back to 49.4, has been offset by a further recovery in the Taiwan print, now up to 50.2. This is highs in the Taiwan PMI back to mid 2022.
- The detail in the South Korean PMI was ok, with output and new orders both rising. The detail for Taiwan showed a healthy rise in output (to 51.4), while new orders were also up.
- Overall, the PMI prints suggest a further modest recovery in global trade volumes. This is a positive for the global growth backdrop, although it is certainty not pointing to a v shaped recovery (like we saw in 2020) (see MNI Export Growth Recovering But Improvement Not Uniform).
Fig 1: Avg South Korean and Taiwan PMIs Versus Global Trade Volumes Y/Y
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Keep reading...Show less
197 words