GLOBAL
CPB global export volumes rose for the third straight month in February driven by emerging economies but developed ones also posted a monthly increase. The good news is that they are showing positive and increasing momentum but global IP growth is looking soft after falling sharply in January. However, the global manufacturing PMI is still in moderate expansionary territory.
- Global export volumes rose 0.2% m/m in February to be 2.8% higher on a year ago and 3.2% 3m/3m annualised. Shipments from emerging markets rose 6.7% y/y while from developed improved to 0.7% y/y from -0.6% with both posting increases on the month.
- The recovery is not broad based though with China, advanced Asia, eastern Europe and the US driving it but the euro area, UK and Africa weak. Emerging Asia and Japan are struggling.
Global exports y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv/CPB
- The JP Morgan global manufacturing PMI rose 0.3 points to 50.6 in March consistent with global IP growth remaining soft but still positive. Global IP rose 0.6% m/m in February after falling 0.8% the previous month which is driving soft growth of 0.2% y/y and 0.2% 3-month annualised momentum.
Global growth
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv/Bloomberg
- There is some correlation between the Baltic Freight Index and global trade growth (around 45% since 2001) and so developments are worth watching given the recent turn down in the former.
- Trade prices remain soft with export prices falling 3.1% y/y in February and import prices -1.5% y/y but they’re not as disinflationary as they have been with them troughing at -8.9% y/y and -6.8% in June 2023 respectively.
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