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South Korean CPI Provides BOK with Room to Move on Rates.

SOUTH KOREA


  • Korea’s CPI moderated in August, taking pressure off the Central Bank.
  • The 2% yoy price rise brings the CPI back in line with the BOK target.
  • Today’s print represents a meaningful decline from the prior month’s print of 2.6%.
  • Consensus from economists was for a 2.1% yoy increase.
  • BOK officials have been under pressure from government spokespeople on rates since the last meeting where rates remained unchanged.
  • Rates are generally considered in restrictive territory but with four of seven voting members in favour of a cut, the tide appears to be turning.
  • BOK’s focus has been on Seoul house prices as a key indicator for monetary policy.
  • The government has taken steps to address house prices with announcements on new home supply and a focus on lending standards from the key banks.
  • The BOK has maintained its rate at 3.5% since the beginning of 2023 yet with consumer activity declining in the domestic economy, will potentially be looking for opportunities to cut rates into year end.

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