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S&P Holding Narrow Range With Cross Currents Underneath

US STOCKS
  • A sizeable rally in Treasuries has provided little macro tailwind for stocks today, despite it being driven in real yield terms (10Y nominal -4.3bps, real -6.4bp) in a change from yesterday’s lower inflation breakeven led move.
  • ESZ3 at 4560.75 (unch) is within the day’s narrow range. Trend conditions remain bullish with resistance seen at 4580.5 (Nov 22 high), which it came close to earlier with a fleeting high of 4577.25, after which lies key resistance at 4597.50 (Sep 1 high).
  • E-minis see the S&P near in line with Nasdaq 100 (0.05%), underperforming the Dow (+0.2%) and outperforming the Russell 2000 (-0.3%).
  • In cash space, SPX is led by consumer discretionary (+0.5%, helped by Tesla +3.8%) and real estate (+0.5%) again with lower rates, closely follow by utilities (+0.5%) and consumer staples (+0.4%). Healthcare (-0.4%) is a clear lagger followed by tech/industrials (-0.05%), with tech suffering from Nvidia -1.2% after Micron has slipped -2.9% for its worst decline in two months after higher operating expenses.

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