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S&P Upgrades Universal Music

COMMUNICATIONS
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  • Upgraded on strong performance and low leverage; S&P see up to 6% revenue growth annually in the next 2-3 years, driven by streaming, social media, and gaming.
  • EUR 1.7-2bn of FOCF in 2024-2026; sufficient for organic growth, bolt-on acquisitions, and dividends in line with 50% of net profit payout policy. FOCF to debt seen above staying above 45% against a downside threshold of 25%.
  • S&P-adj debt to EBITDA seen staying below 1.5x in the absence of catalogue acquisitions or additional payouts. Upside thresholds set at public commitment to <1.5x and downside threshold at 2.75x.
  • Governance factors a mild negative due to the influence of several large shareholders.
  • EUR spreads moving tighter but still muted on the day (EUR 32s -2bp).
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  • Upgraded on strong performance and low leverage; S&P see up to 6% revenue growth annually in the next 2-3 years, driven by streaming, social media, and gaming.
  • EUR 1.7-2bn of FOCF in 2024-2026; sufficient for organic growth, bolt-on acquisitions, and dividends in line with 50% of net profit payout policy. FOCF to debt seen above staying above 45% against a downside threshold of 25%.
  • S&P-adj debt to EBITDA seen staying below 1.5x in the absence of catalogue acquisitions or additional payouts. Upside thresholds set at public commitment to <1.5x and downside threshold at 2.75x.
  • Governance factors a mild negative due to the influence of several large shareholders.
  • EUR spreads moving tighter but still muted on the day (EUR 32s -2bp).