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SPAIN DATA: Economic Sentiment Above 100 For The 12th Consecutive Month

SPAIN DATA
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Spanish economic sentiment printed above its long-term average of 100 for the 12th consecutive month in November. The 2.1-point increase to 102.1 still leaves the index below the YTD average of 103.1, but remains in fitting with Spain as a notable outperformer amongst the four largest Eurozone economies.

  • Current Bloomberg consensus expects Spanish economic outperformance to continue in 2025, with the median forecast looking for 2.2% Y/Y growth (vs 0.7% in Germany, 0.9% in France and 0.9% in Italy).
  • Unfortunately, for the last two months the EC has not released details of some important sub-components of its survey (e.g. consumer, retail and services sentiment). However, the notable fall in construction confidence (8.7 vs 14.6 prior) suggests increases were seen in other components.
  • The fall in construction confidence may reflectthe impact of the recent floods in Valencia, which will likely also show up in other Q4 data in the coming weeks. Bank of Spain Governor Escriva has already warned that the floods will impact Q4 GDP, including the projections submitted to the ECB for its December forecast round. 

 

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Spanish economic sentiment printed above its long-term average of 100 for the 12th consecutive month in November. The 2.1-point increase to 102.1 still leaves the index below the YTD average of 103.1, but remains in fitting with Spain as a notable outperformer amongst the four largest Eurozone economies.

  • Current Bloomberg consensus expects Spanish economic outperformance to continue in 2025, with the median forecast looking for 2.2% Y/Y growth (vs 0.7% in Germany, 0.9% in France and 0.9% in Italy).
  • Unfortunately, for the last two months the EC has not released details of some important sub-components of its survey (e.g. consumer, retail and services sentiment). However, the notable fall in construction confidence (8.7 vs 14.6 prior) suggests increases were seen in other components.
  • The fall in construction confidence may reflectthe impact of the recent floods in Valencia, which will likely also show up in other Q4 data in the coming weeks. Bank of Spain Governor Escriva has already warned that the floods will impact Q4 GDP, including the projections submitted to the ECB for its December forecast round.