Free Trial

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access

SPD Could Fall To 3rd In Berlin Vote Dealing Blow To Scholz's Standing


Latest opinion polling in the run-up to the Berlin state election taking place on Sunday 12 February shows that the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) could go from being the largest party in the Abgeordnetenhaus (state parliament) to third place. The centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is on course to emerge as the largest party, but could find it difficult to find coalition partners to gain a majority. The election is a re-run of the 2021 vote, ordered by the Constitutional Court due to voting irregularities.

  • Falling behind the CDU in a city that usually leans to the political left would come as a blow to both the local SPD and Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Polls show the CDU leading in the richer former West Berlin, but also unexpectedly in the old East Berlin, which historically has been a stronghold for the far-left Die Linke.
  • The next city administration could be another 'red-red-green' alliance with the SPD, environmentalist Greens, and Die Linke, given the closer ideological links between the parties, but could see the Greens take the Governing Mayor's position if they hold more seats than the SPD.
  • As the CDU is set to emerge as the largest party, it may have the first opportunity to seek to form an administration. This could be in a 'grand coalition' with the SPD, a 'Germany' coalition with the SPD and pro-business liberal FDP, or a 'Jamaica' coalition with the Greens and FDP.
Chart 1. Berlin State Election Opinion Polling, %

Source: Forsa, Infratest dimap, FGW, Wahlkreisprognose, INSA, MNI

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to


MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.