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SPD Holds Outright Lead In Poll For First Time Since Apr 2017

GERMANY

The latest opinion poll from Forsa gives the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) a 1% lead over the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the first time the SPD has led in a nationwide opinion poll since April 2017.

  • Forsa poll: SPD: 23% (+2), CDU/CSU: 22% (-1), Greens: 18% (-1), FDP: 12%, AfD: 10%, LINKE: 6%. +/- vs. 10-16 August 2021. Fieldwork: 17-23 August 2021 Sample size: 2,504
  • Another opinion poll released in the past 24 hours from INSA shows the SPD and CDU neck-and-neck:
    • INSA poll: SPD: 23% (+1), CDU/CSU: 23% (+1), Greens: 17%, FDP: 13%, AfD: 11% (-1), LINKE: 7%. +/- vs. 16-20 August 2021. Fieldwork: 20-23 August 2021 Sample size: 2,119
  • Simulations from dawum.de show a three-party coalition the only possibilities for a majority gov't based on recent polling. They also show the left-wing 'red-red-green' potential coalition of the SPD, Greens, and far-left Die Linke very close to securing a majority based on recent polling:

Chart 1. Potential German Coalition Gov'ts Based on Recent Polling, % of Seats.

Source: dawum.de

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