Speaker Johnson Faces Uphill Battle Getting Funding Plan Through Divided GOP

With nine scheduled Congressional workdays until a government shutdown, House Republican leadership appears no closer to alighting on a short-term government funding plan that can pass the lower chamber.

• House Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-LA) plan this week likely centres on passing something through the House that can give him leverage in negotiations with Democrats, even if it falls short of his initial plan, which was pulled last week amid opposition from national security hawks and hardline conservatives.
• It is now looking increasingly unlikely that a funding final package will include either of his two initial proposals – a six-month spending extension and The SAVE Act, a partisan bill that requires Americans to present proof of citizenship when registering to vote, which is DOA in the Senate and under a veto threat from President Biden.
• Johnson may attempt various combinations of his two original proposals, either a six-month extension without SAVE or a three-month extension with SAVE. However, considering the internal disunity within the GOP conference, our baseline scenario remains that Johnson will acquiesce to a clean three-month Continuing Resolution shortly before the September 30 deadline, preventing the political fallout from any potential government shutdown brinksmanship.
• Senate Democrats are currently holding fire on their own CR, but expect the Senate to jam the House with a clean CR if Johnson fails to come up with a viable Plan B this week.