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Spot USD/IDR Pushes Towards Cyclical Highs Amid Contraction In Indonesian Palm Oil Exports

IDR

Spot USD/IDR has added 32 figs and changes hands at IDR15,619. A break above Oct 21 high of IDR15,634 would bring Apr 16, 2020 high of IDR15,754 into view. Bears keep an eye on Oct 5/Sep 30 lows of IDR15,162/15,150.

  • USD/IDR 1-month NDF last -2 figs at IDR15, with downside focus falling on Oct 5 low of IDR15,158. On the topside, the IDR16,000 area draws initial attention.
  • Foreign players bought a net $89.45mn in local stocks Monday, while the Jakarta Comp climbed for the fourth consecutive day. The rally in Indonesia's benchmark stock index has stalled today after a failed test of resistance from its 50-DMA.
  • Palm oil futures have advanced as trading resumed in Kuala Lumpur after Malaysia's public holiday. The most active contract trades +MYR16/MT as we type. Cargo surveyor Intertek reported that Indonesia's palm oil exports fell 36% M/M last month to 2.58mn tons.
  • The tightening in INDOGB 5-Year/10-Year spread has extended after last week's monetary policy decision from Bank Indonesia and last sits at 29.4bp, printing its worst levels since early 2019. Flattening impetus is likely amplified by Bank Indonesia's "Operation Twist."
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