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Spot USD/INR Approaches 200-DMA, PMIs Cross Slightly Above Estimates

INDIA
  • Preliminary PMIs for February came in a touch above expectations (manufacturing 56.7 vs. 56.5 expected). The Nifty 50 index reacted little to the data, though gains accelerated through the session with the index ultimately closing 0.74% in the green, close to its recent all-time highs.
  • The rupee firmed against the dollar towards the end of the session, with Bloomberg noting that foreign inflows into the nation’s debt supported the currency. They add that rupee-denominated bonds have got ~$222m of foreign inflows this week, taking total purchases this year to $4.5bln. 1-month USD/INR forward outrights dipped in European hours, reflecting the aforementioned rupee strength, with the contract trading close to the mid-January lows.
  • Broader weakness in the greenback has no doubt aided the 0.15% decline in spot USD/INR, with the pair trading just above the 200-DMA at 82.8376. Note that we have not traded below this average since July 2023.
  • Looking ahead, GDP data for Q4-2023 is the next local release of note, and will cross on Feb 29.
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