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Spreads Move to Further Encourage LNG to Europe

NATURAL GAS

Gas spreads move further in favour of flows to Europe as Asia LNG prices continue to slide despite increased interest from Asian buyers.

  • The April US netback to Europe is at 12.12$/mmbtu but the netback to Asia has fallen in recent days down to 10.64$/mmbtu. Higher netbacks to Europe than Asia this summer should help encourage the required supplies to restock storage.
  • The front month JKM-TTF spread has fallen to the lowest since mid December at -1.6$/mmbtu.
  • Price sensitive buyers are showing increasing interest in LNG spot supplies with India this week buying LNG at the lowest price since summer 2021.
  • LNG net import flows to Europe have edged slightly higher up to 437mcm/d on 21 Feb up from 401mcm/d on 19 Feb.
  • Vessel tracking shows 50 arrivals to NW European terminals so far in Feb with another 14 expected compared to 79 in Jan. All Angola’s LNG exports since November have headed to Europe with none to previous destinations such as India, Pakistan, and Singapore.
    • TTF MAR 23 up 1.6% at 51.4€/MWh
    • NBP MAR 23 up 2.1% at 128p/th
    • JKM Mar 23 up 0.4% at 14.36$/mmbtu
    • JKM-TTF Mar 23 down -0.3$/mmbtu at -1.6$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas MAR 23 up 4.7% at 2.28$/mmbtu


Source: Bloomberg

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