St. Louis Fed's James Bullard base case is......>

FED: St. Louis Fed's James Bullard base case is macroeconomy "will continue to

build on its momentum from May and June in the second half of 2020." Other

highlights:

* "The downside risk is nevertheless substantial, and better execution of a

granular, risk-based health policy will be critical to keep the economy out of

depression," Bullard said in prepared remarks to the Economic Club of New York. 

* "A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that there is room for a

substantial decline in the official unemployment rate in the months ahead,"

Bullard said, adding if all of the unemployed who have identified as "on

temporary layoff" are simply recalled in the next six months and nothing else

changes, the official unemployment rate would decline to 4.5%.

* While Q2 GDP is projected to show "substantial contraction, forecasts have

become less negative in recent weeks," he said.

* "Simple risk mitigation strategies, including ubiquitous masks, hold the

promise of delivering higher household incomes along with lower fatalities from

COVID-19, thus improving along both dimensions."