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​Standard Chartered See Year-End USD/TRY at 36 if Erdogan Re-Elected

TURKEY
  • President Erdogan met MHP Chairman Devlet Bahceli on Thursday, where the pair discussed the earthquakes and the elections, Hurriyet report. May 14 and June 18 dates were discussed, as well as the issue of how to hold elections in earthquake-struck zones.
  • Turkey’s central bank is having to defend a $1.6b for survivors of the country’s earthquake because it has apparently bypassed the Treasury, Bloomberg report. Governor Kavcioglu said the bank drew the money from its profits and preferred a direct transfer instead of the usual practice of handing its profits over to the ministry. This stirred controversy as the central bank used funds earmarked for the Treasury even before its profits for last year were disclosed.
  • In report from Feb 16, Standard Chartered forecast USD/TRY at 20 if the opposition wins the elections as foreign investors could expect a change in economic policy, which could prompt resumption of portfolio inflows. However, a continuation of current policies could cause the lira to weaken to 36 by year-end via real FX adjustment. Standard Chartered additionally forecasts GDP growth to slow to 3% in 2023, from 4.5% last year, and sees 100bps of rate cuts in 1H-2023.
  • A central bank survey released this morning sees year-end inflation at 35.76%. Year-end USD/TRY is seen at 22.84 (previous 23.12) while 2023 GDP growth is estimated at 3.6% (previous 4.1%).
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