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State and National CPI Data Signals Core Uptick

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)

GERMANY MAR FLASH CPI +0.8% M/M, +7.4% Y/Y (= MNI ESTIMATE); FEB +8.7% Y/Y

GERMANY MAR FLASH HICP +1.1% M/M (FCST +0.8%), +7.8% Y/Y (FCST +7.5%); FEB +9.3% Y/Y

  • German inflation cooled less than anticipated by 1.5pp to +7.8% y/y (HICP), whilst rising +1.1% m/m in a three-tenths beat on expectations.
  • After stalling at +8.7% y/y in February, the national flash inflation measure rose +0.8% m/m, easing 1.3pp to +7.4% y/y. This was a 0.1pp upside surprise on the Bloomberg consensus, but equal to the MNI estimate published this morning based on our calculation implementing 80% of state data.
  • Despite not posting a national core print, the 0.1pp uptick to +4.8% y/y in service inflation provides an indication for stronger core CPI.
  • From the available state data, an acceleration in core CPI ex. energy and food is suggested, having quickened on annualised headline prints in NRW (+0.2pp), Hesse (+0.2pp), Brandenburg (+0.5pp) whilst steady in Berlin and Rhineland-Palatinate. The final German CPI data and details on core CPI will be released on April 13.
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