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Steady Rates Rally With An Eye Already On Next Week’s Data

CANADA
  • BAX futures remain relatively little changed by yesterday’s FOMC minutes, currently rallying 3-4bps across most of the curve on very thin volumes today but only back to Tuesday levels.
  • The terminal in the Mar’23 contract is consistent with a policy rate only a little above 4.25% (i.e. a little more than 50bp of hikes from here), with OIS pricing torn, along with analysts, between a 25bp and 50bp hike on Dec 7.
  • There’s already an eye on next week’s local data with GDP for Sep/Q3 (Tue) and the labour report for Nov (Fri) likely shaping expectations.


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