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Steady Start, Q3 GDP Due This Week

US TSYS

TYH4 deals at 112-14+, +0-01+, a touch below Friday’s closing levels in a steady start to the week's dealing.

  • Cash tsys finished 5bps cheaper to 3bps richer across the major benchmarks on Friday. The curve twist flattened pivoting on 10s.
  • The short end of the curve was pressured on Friday as NY President Williams noted that the FOMC isn't thinking about rate cuts right now and it is premature to think about the timing of easing.
  • Tsys did remain well within recent ranges as Williams comments were not too far from what Fed Chair Powell had said on Wednesday. The space mostly looked through the S&P Global flash PMI's.
  • FOMC dated OIS price a terminal rate of 5.30% with ~1.20% of cuts by November 2024.
  • The highlight of the weeks docket is the third read of Q3 GDP, we also have the November PCE data cross.
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