Steady Trends As Market Awaits OPEC Meeting

Oil has tracked a fairly tight range through the first part of Tuesday trade. Brent was last in the $80.15/20 region, a touch above Monday closing levels. We have clawed back 0.25% of Monday's 0.74% loss at this stage. For WTI we are close to the $75/bbl level, following a similar trajectory to Brent.

• Brent drifted higher in early trade, but highs near $80.50/bbl remained well within Monday's ranges. Recent dips sub $80/bbl have been supported and some distance from testing support at $76.60 (Nov 16 low).
• Focus remains on Thursday's OPEC+ meeting. There have been reports that the group remains divided over whether to cut output further with many reluctant to do so and the Nigeria/Angola quota increase has not yet been agreed. CME Group estimates a 67.8% probability that there will be no change in the output level and 24.8% that it will be increased, according to Dow Jones.
• The market is speculating that if OPEC+ can’t agree on quotas that Saudi Arabia will end its voluntary cuts and “flood the market” pushing prices down for all members.