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Steeper Path Inline With Market Expectations

NORGES BANK
  • The new Norges Bank rate path projections were broadly inline with market expectations - signalling the December meeting as the most likely first hike. This first hike has been brought forward by around a quarter. Two further full rate hikes are now priced into 2022 and the terminal rate nudged higher toward 1.5% out to the end of the forecast horizon, which now includes 2024.
  • There were some expectations that the Bank could be more hesitant, but the bank have acknowledged a faster than expected vaccine rollout "will likely lift growth through 2021".
  • US fiscal stimulus also cited as a factor in the steeper rate path, as well as financial stability risks from housing: "The Committee also placed weight on the marked rise in house prices since spring 2020."
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