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Steeper TTF Curve Contango on Easing Summer Supply Risk


The contango at the front of the TTF gas curve has steepened in recent weeks due to high storage levels easing pressure on summer supplies and with the risk of cold weather potentially leading to tight supplies next winter.

  • The EU have extended the consumption reduction targets until next March with risks to future supplies.
  • The risk from a warm summer and a recovery in Chinese demand raising competition for LNG supplies could still add upward pressure to prices this summer as Europe looks to restock without the volume of Russian pipeline gas seen last year.
  • Based on data from the last ten years European storage looks set to comfortably refill ahead of next winter. Storage increased by an average of +612TWh from April 1 to the post-summer peak in the last ten years. Inventories are projected to reach a post-summer peak of 1,245TWh, with a range of 1,102TWh to 1,412TWh compared to the maximum available storage capacity of just 1,129TWh.

Source: Bloomberg

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