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Sticky Services Inflation Data Ahead of June Riksbank Meet

SWEDEN
MNI (London)

SWEDEN MAY CPIF +0.1% M/M; +6.7% Y/Y ; APR +7.6% Y/Y

  • Swedish inflation cooled by 0.9pp to +6.7% y/y in the Riksbank's closely watched CPIF measure (CPI with fixed interest rate), in line with expectations.
  • CPIF rose a marginal +0.1% m/m, edging down from +0.2% m/m in April.
  • Mikael Nordin, statistician at Statistics Sweden confirmed the "continued decrease in electricity and food prices contributed to the lower inflation rate in May".
  • Food fell -0.4% m/m, and energy and fuel by -11.1% m/m and -4.7% m/m respectively. This was offset by the +3.3% m/m jump in restaurant/hotel prices, +1.6% m/m uptick in recreation/culture charges and a +1.5% m/m increase in clothing prices.
  • Sticky service prices underpinned continued strength in CPIF ex. energy, which surprised to the upside in May, easing by only 0.2pp to +8.2% y/y (vs +7.8% expected).
  • The slower deceleration in underlying inflationary pressures add to the probability of the Riksbank delivering a 25bp hike on June 29 as priced in by markets, bringing rates to 3.75% and the likely cycle peak.

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