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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
NETHERLANDS
Opinion polling continues to show no clear frontrunner as the Netherlands enters the month of its general election. Voters go to the polls on 22 Nov and unlike the last two elections in 2017 and 2021 there are a number of parties vying for first position, which would give them the first opportunity to form a governing coalition. The three likely contenders for the top spot are:
- The centre-right VVD of Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius - veered to the right under Yesilgöz, has not ruled out working w/far-right PVV of Geert Wilders.
- The centre-left PvdA-GL of Frans Timmermans - best chance for the left to gain power in years having united Labour and GreenLeft on joint ticket.
- The centrist, big-tent NSC of Pieter Omtzigt - likely kingmaker, has said closer to PvdA-GL economically but VVD socially, ruled out working w/PVV, Omtzigt says he does not want PM's office even if NSC wins most seats.
With immigration, healthcare and inflationary pressures the three highest-profile issues among the electorate, areas such as EU fiscal policy or foreign policy related to the Israel-Hamas war look unlikely to tip the balance in the vote. Polling shows that parties of the right may be better positioned to put together a majority coalition (see chart below), but with just 0.67% of the vote needed to win a seat, and 26 partiesappearing on the ballot it remains too early to project a likely winner, let alone the composition of a coalition.
- MNI's Political Risk team will be publishing a full Election Preview in the run-up to the vote.
Chart 1. General Election Opinion Polling, Seat Projection & 3-Poll Moving Average
Source: Ipsos, Peil.nl, I&O Research, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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