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Still Not Quite Committed To First Fed Cut In June Ahead Of CPI

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates consolidate yesterday’s push higher ahead of today’s CPI report – preview here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/60293/USCPIPrevMar2024.pdf
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 0.5bp Mar, 5.5bp May, 21bp Jun, 37bp Jul and 90bp Dec.
  • The latter has recovered from the more than 100bp of cuts briefly touched after payrolls, but remains off the almost 75bp of cuts seen in late Feb that came close to matching the median dot for 2024 from the Dec SEP.
  • There’s been little intraday impact from the February NFIB survey which included a range of softer labor indicators along with a moderation in pricing plans.

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