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Still too much priced into SONIA strip

STIR FUTURES
  • STIR futures markets are mixed this morning with Euribor futures 0.5 ticks lower across the strip, Eurodollar futures 1-4 ticks higher while the SONIA strip is 1-3 ticks higher.
  • For the US, markets now price around 52bp for June, 98bp cumulatively by July, 135bp by September and 186bp by year-end (5 meetings). The year-end figure is around 30bp lower than it was ahead of last week's Fed decision.
  • For the UK, 27bp is priced for June, 53bp by August, 82bp by September and 118bp by year-end. This is around 15bp lower than before last week's MPC meeting. To us, UK pricing for September onwards looks a little optimistic and stands out over the US and Eurozone as having too much priced in.
  • For the Eurozone, 4bp is priced for June, 21bp for July, 50bp by September and 89bp is priced by year-end. The year-end figure is roughly in the middle of the range it has been trading in since the beginning of the month.

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