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Still trading the election results


The US election has been the sole focus of the market this morning. After initial polls had shown an increased chance of Biden victory, results have looked more mixed through the night. Now betting odds are close to 50/50 for the presidency but the chance of a Democratic Blue Wave appear to have receded with the Democrats not picking up as many seats in the Senate as they had originally hoped for. Markets judge the lack of a clean sweep makes a quick stimulus package appear less likely and hence would likely see a slower economic recovery. This saw core bond markets move higher globally. Election results are expected to continue to drip in and will remain the focus of markets today.

  • TY1 futures are up 0-21+ today at 138-24+ with 10y UST yields down -11.4bp at 0.786% and 2y yields down -1.1bp at 0.158%.
  • Bund futures are up 0.42 today at 176.44 with 10y Bund yields down -2.6bp at -0.647% and Schatz yields down -0.5bp at -0.804%.
  • Gilt futures are up 0.57 today at 136.06 with 10y yields down -4.7bp at 0.224% and 2y yields down -2.0bp at -0.67%.

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