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Stimulus Deal Unlikely Before Election

US TSYS SUMMARY

In spite of the early risk-off tone, Wednesday's trade was much more subdued than the prior session (TYZ only 680k by the close), Tsys were mostly firmer but off midday lows as equities see-sawed off lows (ESZ0 -14.0).

  • Covid-19 and stimulus related headlines remained key drivers, though nothing really new: comments from Tsy Sec Mnuchin re: difficulty in reaching stimulus agreement before election while gulf between parties remains. Worrying European developments: French PM Macron imposes curfew for major French cities (GRENOBLE, LILLE, LYON, MARSEILLE, TOULOUSE), not a full lock-down to stem spread of virus for next 4 weeks.
  • Myriad Fed speakers on day, Fed VC Clarida humming familiar tune: "additional support from monetary, and likely fiscal policy will be needed" to support recovery. Dal Fed Kaplan: 2% infl not a ceiling, "overshoot" is around 2.25%.
  • Decent US$ denominated supra-sov issuance on day w/$6B total China 4pt making up half day's supply.
  • The 2-Yr yield is unchanged at 0.139%, 5-Yr is down 0.3bps at 0.3008%, 10-Yr is down 0.7bps at 0.7206%, and 30-Yr is down 0.9bps at 1.5021%.
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