STIR: 142bps of ECB Cuts Priced Across The Next 8 Meetings

Across the next 8 ECB meetings to July 2025, ECB-dated OIS price 142bps of easing (i.e. almost 6x25bp rate cuts). This is more aggressive than that implied by a quarterly pace of cuts. At the Sep 12 meeting, the ECB’s updated projections may help inform the likely pace of easing into next year, with markets likely to assess growth concerns against risks of inflation persistence.

• OIS continue to fully price a 25bp cut through September and 65bps of easing through ’24.  
• Euribor futures were broadly steady overnight, holding onto yesterday afternoon’s recovery from weekly lows. Futures are flat to +1.5 ticks versus yesterday’s settlement levels.
• Today’s regional calendar includes Euro-area money supply for July, though focus remains on the August flash inflation round, beginning tomorrow with Spain and Germany.
• Our EZ inflation preview will be released this morning.