MNI: UK NOV FINAL MANUF PMI 48.0 (FLASH 48.6); OCT 49.9

MNI: EUROZONE NOV FINAL MANUF PMI 45.2 (FLASH 45.2); OCT 46.0

MNI: GERMANY NOV FINAL MANUF PMI 43.0 (FLASH 43.2); OCT 43.0

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY216 Bln via OMO Monday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1865 Mon; -1.50% Y/Y

MNI: China CFETS Yuan Index Up 0.01% In Week of Nov 29

MNI: EUROZONE OCT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 6.3%

MNI: FRANCE NOV FINAL MANUF PMI 43.1 (FLASH 43.2); OCT 44.5

MNI: ITALY NOV MANUF PMI 44.5 (FCST 46.0); OCT 46.9

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

MNI EXCLUSIVE: German Turmoil Dashes EU's Joint-Funding Hopes -Officials

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

STIR: 158bp Of ECB Cuts Priced Through '25, French Risks Underpin Euribor

STIR
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

French political/fiscal risk (outlined elsewhere) promotes modest dovish repricing in EUR STIRs this morning.

  • Euribor futures 0.5-3.0 firmer on the day.
  • ECB-dated OIS little changed to 2bp more dovish on the day, showing 30.5bp of cuts for next week and 158bp of easing through Dec '25.
  • ECB speak didn’t really move the needle this morning, with Lane & Kazaks both reiterating space for further policy easing (a known, market more concerned with the speed of moves at this stage).
  • A reminder that late Friday saw J.P.Morgan pull forward the 50bp cut they had pencilled in from January to December. They suggested that the case for such a move “seems strong given the sharp PMI drop, slowing services inflation momentum, likelihood of persistent trade uncertainty and a starting point of restrictive rates.”
  • Manufacturing PMIs (final for EZ, Germany & France) due today, although more focus will fall on the U.S. ISM equivalent.

ECB Meeting

Keep reading...Show less
156 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

French political/fiscal risk (outlined elsewhere) promotes modest dovish repricing in EUR STIRs this morning.

  • Euribor futures 0.5-3.0 firmer on the day.
  • ECB-dated OIS little changed to 2bp more dovish on the day, showing 30.5bp of cuts for next week and 158bp of easing through Dec '25.
  • ECB speak didn’t really move the needle this morning, with Lane & Kazaks both reiterating space for further policy easing (a known, market more concerned with the speed of moves at this stage).
  • A reminder that late Friday saw J.P.Morgan pull forward the 50bp cut they had pencilled in from January to December. They suggested that the case for such a move “seems strong given the sharp PMI drop, slowing services inflation momentum, likelihood of persistent trade uncertainty and a starting point of restrictive rates.”
  • Manufacturing PMIs (final for EZ, Germany & France) due today, although more focus will fall on the U.S. ISM equivalent.

ECB Meeting

Keep reading...Show less