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STIR: 41bp Of Cuts For Nov With Data and Fedspeak Deluge Ahead

STIR
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  • Fed Funds implied rates mostly hold yesterday’s climb although Nov remains near recent lows.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 41bp Nov, 79bp Dec, 112bp Jan and 179bp June.
  • Fed Gov. Kugler (voter) maintained her dovish stance in first public comments in over two months yesterday. She “strongly supported” a 50bp cut last week and noted a “need” to frontload rate cuts given lags in policy.
  • There’s a stream of Fedspeak ahead after important data updates at 0830ET, although some have spoken recently. Powell is only set to give brief opening remarks and there haven’t been any tier one data releases since the FOMC last week, but can never be overlooked. Williams has perhaps the most scope for impact today, speaking for 15mins at the annual Treasury Market Conference (full schedule here), whilst Collins (typically dovish side of center) starts proceedings in a fireside chat.
  • 0910ET – Collins (’25) and Kugler (voter) in fireside chat. Collins said Aug 20 that she saw policy being recalibrated gradually.
  • 0915ET – Bowman (voter) on eco outlook (text identical to Tue + Q&A)
  • 0920ET – Powell (voter) pre-recorded opening remarks for US Tsy Mkt Conference (text)
  • 0925ET – Williams (voter) remarks at Tsy Mkt Conf (text). He said Sep 6 that the Fed has no general principle on fast vs gradual moves and will reassess actions in time as it doesn’t want to get locked in.
  • 1030ET – Barr (voter) remarks at Tsy Mkt Conf (text + Q&A)
  • 1030ET – Cook (voter) in roundtable on AI and workforce (Q&A only)
  • 1300ET – Kashkari (non-voter) hosts Barr (voter) on banking supervision (Q&A only)
  • 1800ET – Cook (voter) speech on AI and labor force (text + Q&A)
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  • Fed Funds implied rates mostly hold yesterday’s climb although Nov remains near recent lows.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 41bp Nov, 79bp Dec, 112bp Jan and 179bp June.
  • Fed Gov. Kugler (voter) maintained her dovish stance in first public comments in over two months yesterday. She “strongly supported” a 50bp cut last week and noted a “need” to frontload rate cuts given lags in policy.
  • There’s a stream of Fedspeak ahead after important data updates at 0830ET, although some have spoken recently. Powell is only set to give brief opening remarks and there haven’t been any tier one data releases since the FOMC last week, but can never be overlooked. Williams has perhaps the most scope for impact today, speaking for 15mins at the annual Treasury Market Conference (full schedule here), whilst Collins (typically dovish side of center) starts proceedings in a fireside chat.
  • 0910ET – Collins (’25) and Kugler (voter) in fireside chat. Collins said Aug 20 that she saw policy being recalibrated gradually.
  • 0915ET – Bowman (voter) on eco outlook (text identical to Tue + Q&A)
  • 0920ET – Powell (voter) pre-recorded opening remarks for US Tsy Mkt Conference (text)
  • 0925ET – Williams (voter) remarks at Tsy Mkt Conf (text). He said Sep 6 that the Fed has no general principle on fast vs gradual moves and will reassess actions in time as it doesn’t want to get locked in.
  • 1030ET – Barr (voter) remarks at Tsy Mkt Conf (text + Q&A)
  • 1030ET – Cook (voter) in roundtable on AI and workforce (Q&A only)
  • 1300ET – Kashkari (non-voter) hosts Barr (voter) on banking supervision (Q&A only)
  • 1800ET – Cook (voter) speech on AI and labor force (text + Q&A)