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STIR: $-Bloc Markets Little Changed Over The Past Week Apart From Canada

STIR
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In the $-bloc, rate expectations through July 2025 remained largely steady over the past week, with the exception of Canada, which saw a 13bps firming. The U.S. firmed by 3bps, while Australia and New Zealand softened slightly, by 1-2bps. 

  • The standout event was the release of hotter-than-expected Canadian CPI data for October. Annual CPI rose to 2%, up from 1.6% in September, exceeding the median forecast of 1.9% in a Bloomberg survey. The BOC’s two preferred core inflation measures also accelerated, averaging 2.55% on a yearly basis, up from 2.35% previously and surpassing expectations.
  • After a relatively quiet week, $-bloc markets are poised for increased activity with key events ahead, including Wednesday’s RBNZ policy decision, Australia’s October CPI release, and the U.S. PCE Deflator for October.
  • Looking ahead to July 2025, the projected official rates and cumulative easing across the $-bloc are as follows: U.S. (FOMC): 4.05%, -57bps; Canada (BoC): 3.09%, -66bps; Australia (RBA): 4.05%, -27bps; and New Zealand (RBNZ): 3.53, -122bps.

 

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In the $-bloc, rate expectations through July 2025 remained largely steady over the past week, with the exception of Canada, which saw a 13bps firming. The U.S. firmed by 3bps, while Australia and New Zealand softened slightly, by 1-2bps. 

  • The standout event was the release of hotter-than-expected Canadian CPI data for October. Annual CPI rose to 2%, up from 1.6% in September, exceeding the median forecast of 1.9% in a Bloomberg survey. The BOC’s two preferred core inflation measures also accelerated, averaging 2.55% on a yearly basis, up from 2.35% previously and surpassing expectations.
  • After a relatively quiet week, $-bloc markets are poised for increased activity with key events ahead, including Wednesday’s RBNZ policy decision, Australia’s October CPI release, and the U.S. PCE Deflator for October.
  • Looking ahead to July 2025, the projected official rates and cumulative easing across the $-bloc are as follows: U.S. (FOMC): 4.05%, -57bps; Canada (BoC): 3.09%, -66bps; Australia (RBA): 4.05%, -27bps; and New Zealand (RBNZ): 3.53, -122bps.

 

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