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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
- Fed Funds implied rates hold yesterday’s post-CPI push higher for the September meeting but beyond that have cooled a touch. The Dec’24 for example is 1bp lower on the day for 3bps lower than both post-CPI highs and levels immediately pre-PPI on Tue.
- Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 35.5bp Sept, 70bp Nov, 105bp Dec, 133bp Jan and 193bp with June.
- There is a stacked data docket including retail sales and weekly jobless claims plus some further Fedspeak – see below.
Post-CPI Fedspeak leant dovish, with a greater change from Bostic who had been one of the more hawkish FOMC members.
- Bostic (’24 voter) in a FT interview released midnight ET: He is “open” to an interest rate cut in September as the Fed can’t “afford to be late” to ease monetary policy. “Now that inflation is coming into range, we have to look at the other side of the mandate, and there, we’ve seen the unemployment rate rise considerably off of its lows”. He had previously seen just one cut in 2024, in Q4.
- Goolsbee (’25 voter) late yesterday: Policy is “very restrictive” and the economy is not overheating. He’s more concerned about the jobs mandate “on the margin” and rising unemployment may indicate a worsening job market. Economic conditions will warrant the size of rate cuts.
Today’s Fedspeak:
- 0910ET - Musalem (’25 voter, hawkish leaning) speaks on the economy and policy at 0910ET (no text). He last spoke after US CPI on Jul 11 (i.e. pre Jul 31 FOMC and July payrolls and CPI reports) when he didn’t see mon pol as overly restrictive and saw the labor market as still strong and likely not fully balanced.
- 1310ET - Harker (non-voter) speaks on economic data (text only). He last spoke in mid-June.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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