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STIR: ECB-dated OIS Return To 43/44bps of Cuts Through Year-end

STIR

ECB-dated OIS are now little changed on the day, as the marginally softer-than-expected US PCE data allows for a degree of dovish repricing.

  • OIS return to showing 43/44bps of cuts through the remainder of ’24, with 19bps of easing priced through the September meeting.
  • This morning, BdF’s Villeroy continued to play down the importance of individual inflation data releases, pointing to increased confidence in the ECB’s macroeconomic projections.
  • While his commentary on “data-driven” not being the same as “flash driven” comes across a little confusing, we think it underscores the notion that inflation progress may be bumpy across individual monthly readings, but should continue trending towards the 2% target across the coming months/quarters (and as such, allow for further policy easing).
  •  A reminder that the Eurozone-wide June flash inflation (due Tuesday) consensus of 2.5% Y/Y still appears intact following the country-level data released so far.
     
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