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STIR: Euribor Futures Weaker; Public Holidays May Thin Liquidity

STIR

Euribor futures are -0.5 to -4.0 through the blues, trading weaker alongside core global bonds.

  • Weekend news that Iran’s President had died in a helicopter crash has not generated any meaningful geopolitical risk premium, with no evidence of external involvement at this stage.
  • While most European markets are open today, liquidity may be hampered by the observance of the Whit Monday holiday.
  • As such, the regional data/speaker calendar is very light today.
  • Primary focus this week will be the ECB’s Q1 indicator of negotiated pay growth and the May flash PMIs, both due on Thursday.
  • Sell-side estimates we have seen suggest that Eurozone Q1 negotiated pay growth is set to remain above 4.0% Y/Y, although a deceleration from the 4.5% seen in Q423 is still likely.
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Euribor futures are -0.5 to -4.0 through the blues, trading weaker alongside core global bonds.

  • Weekend news that Iran’s President had died in a helicopter crash has not generated any meaningful geopolitical risk premium, with no evidence of external involvement at this stage.
  • While most European markets are open today, liquidity may be hampered by the observance of the Whit Monday holiday.
  • As such, the regional data/speaker calendar is very light today.
  • Primary focus this week will be the ECB’s Q1 indicator of negotiated pay growth and the May flash PMIs, both due on Thursday.
  • Sell-side estimates we have seen suggest that Eurozone Q1 negotiated pay growth is set to remain above 4.0% Y/Y, although a deceleration from the 4.5% seen in Q423 is still likely.