MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, November 18

MNI BRIEF: China’s October Youth Employment Rate Remains High

MNI BRIEF: Beijing Retail Sales Growth Decline Narrows In Oct

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY38.9 Bln via OMO Monday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1907 Mon; +0.11% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY172.6 BLN VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS MON

Japan Sep Machine Orders -0.7% M/M

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: EU Synd; SK, BE Auction on Monday

MNI: US SEP BUSINESS INVENTORIES +0.1%; SALES +0.3%

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

MNI EXCLUSIVE: German Turmoil Dashes EU's Joint-Funding Hopes -Officials

FED: Powell's Time Looks Up, Replacement Could Be Less Willing To Cut Rates?

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

STIR: Fed Funds Little Changed With Dec Pause Still Considered

STIR
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
  • Fed Funds implied rates are near unchanged from Friday’s close.
  • It sees rates for the next two meetings close to last week’s highs primarily on growing pause talk but combined core PCE implications, whilst meetings further into 2025 hold more modest net retracement of Wednesday’s CPI-induced decline.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.58% effective: 15bp Dec, 23bp Jan, 38bp Mar and 56bp June.
  • See our summary of the notable shift in Fedspeak from Friday’s US Macro Weekly (here).  
  • Ahead, Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee (’25 voter) gives welcome remarks at 1000ET with no prepared text. Market impact should be limited owing to the format and the fact he spoke on Friday saying current policy is still restrictive, he sees rates coming down along the lines of the dot plot (itself a relatively hawkish shift for recently the most dovish member of the FOMC) and that dispute on the neutral rate could support slower cuts. 
150 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • Fed Funds implied rates are near unchanged from Friday’s close.
  • It sees rates for the next two meetings close to last week’s highs primarily on growing pause talk but combined core PCE implications, whilst meetings further into 2025 hold more modest net retracement of Wednesday’s CPI-induced decline.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.58% effective: 15bp Dec, 23bp Jan, 38bp Mar and 56bp June.
  • See our summary of the notable shift in Fedspeak from Friday’s US Macro Weekly (here).  
  • Ahead, Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee (’25 voter) gives welcome remarks at 1000ET with no prepared text. Market impact should be limited owing to the format and the fact he spoke on Friday saying current policy is still restrictive, he sees rates coming down along the lines of the dot plot (itself a relatively hawkish shift for recently the most dovish member of the FOMC) and that dispute on the neutral rate could support slower cuts.