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STIR: Fed Implied Rates Back Close To Post-NFP/Waller Highs

STIR
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  • Fed Funds implied rates have reversed some declines seen late Friday and shortly after the Asia open to sit back closer to highs seen Friday’s payrolls and Fedspeak.
  • Fedspeak plus the mixed nature of the report has seen 50bp cut odds been trimmed with 31.3bp for Sept 18, but with deeper cutting cycle expected with implied rates from December and onwards lower than pre-NFP levels.
  • As noted in the MNI US Employment Insight, a clear majority of analysts looks for a 25bp cut this month but Wednesday’s CPI report is likely to be the deciding factor, especially for market pricing.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 31.3bp Sep, 70bp Nov, 112bp Dec, 147bp Jan and 218bp June.
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  • Fed Funds implied rates have reversed some declines seen late Friday and shortly after the Asia open to sit back closer to highs seen Friday’s payrolls and Fedspeak.
  • Fedspeak plus the mixed nature of the report has seen 50bp cut odds been trimmed with 31.3bp for Sept 18, but with deeper cutting cycle expected with implied rates from December and onwards lower than pre-NFP levels.
  • As noted in the MNI US Employment Insight, a clear majority of analysts looks for a 25bp cut this month but Wednesday’s CPI report is likely to be the deciding factor, especially for market pricing.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 31.3bp Sep, 70bp Nov, 112bp Dec, 147bp Jan and 218bp June.