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GOP No Closer To Agreement On Reconciliation Strategy

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The GOP is no closer to agreeing on 2025 legislative strategy, following a meeting between President-elect Donald Trump and Republican Senators yesterday. 

  • Trump said ahead of the Capitol Hill meeting: “We’re looking at the one bill versus two bills, and whatever it is, it doesn’t matter.”
  • Trumpexited the meeting with the same message: “One bill, two bills, doesn’t matter,” signalling that House and Senate Republicans must resolve their conflict independently of Trump.
  • Two prominent conservatives in the Senate, Ron Johnson (R-WI) and Rand Paul (R-KY), indicated momentum, and Trump's backing, is leaning towards one huge reconciliation bill, but such a strategy risks dropping support from House conservatives who will baulk at approving what could be the biggest legislative package in American history.
  • The lack of a coherent strategy is a warning the GOP’s razor-thin majority in the House will make legislation far more fraught than Trump’s first term when a robust majority outnumbered the hardline House conservative bloc.
  • As a further complication, Congress must legislate FY2025 spending bills before government funding expires in just over two months and address the federal debt ceiling before a summer default risk emerges.
  • Including a debt ceiling hike in reconciliation will test the loyalty of deficit hawks who have never voted to raise the debt limit. As a reminder, just two or three lawmakers have the power to torpedo the entire Republican agenda.
  • Trump will meet House Republican factions, including the House Freedom Caucus, the pragmatic Main Street Caucus, and SALT-focused blue-state Republicans, on the weekend.
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The GOP is no closer to agreeing on 2025 legislative strategy, following a meeting between President-elect Donald Trump and Republican Senators yesterday. 

  • Trump said ahead of the Capitol Hill meeting: “We’re looking at the one bill versus two bills, and whatever it is, it doesn’t matter.”
  • Trumpexited the meeting with the same message: “One bill, two bills, doesn’t matter,” signalling that House and Senate Republicans must resolve their conflict independently of Trump.
  • Two prominent conservatives in the Senate, Ron Johnson (R-WI) and Rand Paul (R-KY), indicated momentum, and Trump's backing, is leaning towards one huge reconciliation bill, but such a strategy risks dropping support from House conservatives who will baulk at approving what could be the biggest legislative package in American history.
  • The lack of a coherent strategy is a warning the GOP’s razor-thin majority in the House will make legislation far more fraught than Trump’s first term when a robust majority outnumbered the hardline House conservative bloc.
  • As a further complication, Congress must legislate FY2025 spending bills before government funding expires in just over two months and address the federal debt ceiling before a summer default risk emerges.
  • Including a debt ceiling hike in reconciliation will test the loyalty of deficit hawks who have never voted to raise the debt limit. As a reminder, just two or three lawmakers have the power to torpedo the entire Republican agenda.
  • Trump will meet House Republican factions, including the House Freedom Caucus, the pragmatic Main Street Caucus, and SALT-focused blue-state Republicans, on the weekend.