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STIR: Fed Rate Path Fades Step Lower In Oil

STIR
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  • Fed Funds implied rates are unchanged to 1.5bp higher for meetings out to mid-2025.
  • That’s in contrast to up to 2-3bp declines for ECB-dated OIS over the same period, reflecting greater sensitivity to the step lower in oil futures on the relatively restrained nature of weekend Israel strikes on Iranian military targets along with markets still awaiting greater details on China stimulus.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 24bp Nov, 44bp Dec, 60bp Jan and 105bp June.
  • We’re now in the FOMC media blackout ahead of the Nov 6-7 meeting. Today’s data is limited to Dallas Fed manufacturing but it picks up notably from tomorrow. See our latest US Macro Weekly including what to watch for this week: https://media.marketnews.com/US_week_in_macro_241025_5a539c2429.pdf
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  • Fed Funds implied rates are unchanged to 1.5bp higher for meetings out to mid-2025.
  • That’s in contrast to up to 2-3bp declines for ECB-dated OIS over the same period, reflecting greater sensitivity to the step lower in oil futures on the relatively restrained nature of weekend Israel strikes on Iranian military targets along with markets still awaiting greater details on China stimulus.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 24bp Nov, 44bp Dec, 60bp Jan and 105bp June.
  • We’re now in the FOMC media blackout ahead of the Nov 6-7 meeting. Today’s data is limited to Dallas Fed manufacturing but it picks up notably from tomorrow. See our latest US Macro Weekly including what to watch for this week: https://media.marketnews.com/US_week_in_macro_241025_5a539c2429.pdf