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STIR: Fed Rate Path Holds Yesterday’s Climb Ahead Of PCE

STIR
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  • Fed Funds implied rates have modestly extended yesterday’s lift that had been instigated by a surprise decline in jobless claims and possibly helped by minimal GDP revisions confirming a strong prior trend and GDI being revised strongly higher.
  • November rates are 3bp higher than prior to yesterday’s data whilst Dec rates are 5bps higher.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 38bp Nov, 74bp Dec, 105bp Jan and 169bp June.
  • Today see the monthly PCE report firmly in focus (see our 0627ET bullet on core PCE estimates) before the final U.Mich consumer survey which will be watched to see if the 5-10Y’s preliminary increase to 3.1% was maintained.  
  • Today’s Fedspeak is limited to Gov. Bowman (voter) at 1315ET, speaking in a moderated discussion with the Alabama Bankers Association (no text). We don’t expect any mon pol surprises having already heard from her after last week’s dissent of the Fed’s 50bp cut (she preferred 25bp as part of a methodical approach to easing). 
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  • Fed Funds implied rates have modestly extended yesterday’s lift that had been instigated by a surprise decline in jobless claims and possibly helped by minimal GDP revisions confirming a strong prior trend and GDI being revised strongly higher.
  • November rates are 3bp higher than prior to yesterday’s data whilst Dec rates are 5bps higher.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 38bp Nov, 74bp Dec, 105bp Jan and 169bp June.
  • Today see the monthly PCE report firmly in focus (see our 0627ET bullet on core PCE estimates) before the final U.Mich consumer survey which will be watched to see if the 5-10Y’s preliminary increase to 3.1% was maintained.  
  • Today’s Fedspeak is limited to Gov. Bowman (voter) at 1315ET, speaking in a moderated discussion with the Alabama Bankers Association (no text). We don’t expect any mon pol surprises having already heard from her after last week’s dissent of the Fed’s 50bp cut (she preferred 25bp as part of a methodical approach to easing).