MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, November 22

UK NOV FLASH MANUF PMI 48.6 (FCST: 50.0); OCT 49.9

EUROZONE NOV FLASH MANUF PMI 45.2 (FCST: 46.0); OCT 46.0

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY345.9 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI BRIEF: Fed Should Explore Central Clearing At SRF-Hammack

MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, November 21

GERMANY NOV FLASH MANUF PMI 43.2 (FCST: 43.0); OCT 43.0

FRANCE NOV FLASH MANUF PMI 43.2 (FCST:44.5); OCT 44.5

MNI: GERMANY Q3 FINAL GDP 0.1% Q/Q (VS FCST 0.2%)

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

MNI EXCLUSIVE: German Turmoil Dashes EU's Joint-Funding Hopes -Officials

FED: Powell's Time Looks Up, Replacement Could Be Less Willing To Cut Rates?

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STIR: Fed Rates Extend Day’s Increase On Variety Of Factors

STIR
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets
  • Fed Funds implied rates have modestly extended the day’s increases.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 28bp Sep, 64bp Nov, 103bp Dec, 138bp Jan and 215bp June.
  • The Dec’24 rate sits 3bps higher today and Jan’25 4.5bp higher, buoyed by another broadly as expected set of weekly jobless claims data (ruling out sharper deterioration), some hawkish adjustments in ECB pricing and WTI pushing higher.
  • PPI inflation meanwhile was mixed, with a beat exaggerated by rounding and offset by negative revisions. Core PCE relevant components were clearly softer than in July although perhaps not wildly different to what analysts had already baked in their forecasts (JPM for example, who had been joint lowest with a core PCE estimate of 0.13% nudged theirs up to 0.14% post-PPI). 
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  • Fed Funds implied rates have modestly extended the day’s increases.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 28bp Sep, 64bp Nov, 103bp Dec, 138bp Jan and 215bp June.
  • The Dec’24 rate sits 3bps higher today and Jan’25 4.5bp higher, buoyed by another broadly as expected set of weekly jobless claims data (ruling out sharper deterioration), some hawkish adjustments in ECB pricing and WTI pushing higher.
  • PPI inflation meanwhile was mixed, with a beat exaggerated by rounding and offset by negative revisions. Core PCE relevant components were clearly softer than in July although perhaps not wildly different to what analysts had already baked in their forecasts (JPM for example, who had been joint lowest with a core PCE estimate of 0.13% nudged theirs up to 0.14% post-PPI).