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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
- Fed Funds implied rates have extended yesterday’s decline overnight, with WTI (-0.6%) broadly stabilizing relative to heavy losses yesterday but industrial metals falling further (copper -2.5%, iron ore -2.1%).
- It sees the Dec’24 rate some 2bps lower which leaves 105bp of cuts over the next three meetings, close to the 106bp seen in subsequent reaction to Powell’s dovish Jackson Hole speech.
- Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 35.3bp Sep, 70bp Nov, 105bp Dec, 134bp Jan and 197bp June.
- The next scheduled Fedspeak is still only Williams and Waller in post-payrolls appearances on Friday, although today’s Beige Book offers some commentary in the interim.
- Recent Beige Books have increasingly noted price sensitivity by consumers but expect greatest focus on labor market comments this time. The Jul 17 report gave an impression of further rebalancing rather than anything more abrupt: “Most Districts reported employment was flat or up slightly, while a few Districts reported modest employment growth. Several Districts reported declines in employment in the manufacturing sector due to slowdowns in new orders. Skilled-worker availability remained a challenge across all Districts; however, several Districts reported some improvement in labor supply conditions. Additionally, labor turnover was lower, which reduced demand to find new workers. Looking ahead, contacts in several Districts expect to be more selective on who they hire and not backfill all open positions.”
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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