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STIR: Fed Rates Tread Water, Fedspeak/Minutes Ahead

STIR
USGlobalCentral Bank NewsFederal ReserveBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 22.5bp Nov, 50bp Dec, 70bp Jan and 120bp June.
  • Vice Chair Jefferson (voter) late yesterday gave his first monetary policy relevant remarks since May. He saw the employment and inflation goals as roughly in balance. His comment that job market cooling is modest but “noticeable” is notable in light of the latest strong payrolls report, whilst he sees the Fed approaching rate adjustments on a meeting-by-meeting basis.
  • Collins (’25 voter) also said "recent data, including September’s unexpectedly robust jobs report, bolster my assessment that the labor market remains in a good place overall – neither too hot nor too cold”. Repeating Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks, “we do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions." "My confidence in the disinflation trajectory has increased – but so have the risks of the economy slowing beyond what is needed to restore price stability."
  • Today sees a heavy schedule for Fedspeak but Logan (non-voter) at 0915ET and Daly (’24) at 1800ET are the only ones who haven’t spoken recently. Logan delivers prepared remarks at an energy conference which could limit relevance, but any mon pol discussion will be of note having last talked in June and with the same for QT policy.
  • The FOMC minutes also land at 1400ET, more on them here.
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  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 22.5bp Nov, 50bp Dec, 70bp Jan and 120bp June.
  • Vice Chair Jefferson (voter) late yesterday gave his first monetary policy relevant remarks since May. He saw the employment and inflation goals as roughly in balance. His comment that job market cooling is modest but “noticeable” is notable in light of the latest strong payrolls report, whilst he sees the Fed approaching rate adjustments on a meeting-by-meeting basis.
  • Collins (’25 voter) also said "recent data, including September’s unexpectedly robust jobs report, bolster my assessment that the labor market remains in a good place overall – neither too hot nor too cold”. Repeating Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks, “we do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions." "My confidence in the disinflation trajectory has increased – but so have the risks of the economy slowing beyond what is needed to restore price stability."
  • Today sees a heavy schedule for Fedspeak but Logan (non-voter) at 0915ET and Daly (’24) at 1800ET are the only ones who haven’t spoken recently. Logan delivers prepared remarks at an energy conference which could limit relevance, but any mon pol discussion will be of note having last talked in June and with the same for QT policy.
  • The FOMC minutes also land at 1400ET, more on them here.