MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, December 11

MNI BRIEF: Chinese Rail Passenger Numbers Break Record

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY37.3 Bln via OMO Wednesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1843 Weds; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Not Even Close To Fiscal Dominance - David

CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation Rises To 4.87% In Nov

MNI: US NOV CPI 0.3%, CORE 0.3%; CPI Y/Y 2.7%, CORE Y/Y 3.3%

MNI: US NOV SUPERCORE CPI (CORE SERVICES EX-HOUSING) 0.342%

MNI: US NOV CPI UNROUNDED M/M 0.313%, CORE 0.308%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

STIR: Further Off Dovish Extremes, Pre-Payrolls Powell In Focus

STIR
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
  • Fed Funds implied rates have seen surprisingly large spillover stemming from German regional CPI releases which have pushed back against dovish surprises seen in last week’s French and Spanish prints.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 36bp Nov, 73bp Dec, 105bp Jan and 171bp June.
  • Latest Fedspeak came from Musalem (’25) in an FT interview printed Friday afternoon. He wants to see the Fed revert to cutting rates “gradually” as the US economy could react “very vigorously” to looser financial conditions. In similar comments to Gov Waller: “I’m attuned to the fact that the economy could weaken more than I currently expect [and] the labour market could weaken more than I currently expect […] If that were the case, then a faster pace of rate reductions might be appropriate.”
  • Fed Chair Powell headlines today’s docket, with a luncheon address at the NABE conference in Nashville (text + Q&A). Impact could be limited by the fact there has been relatively little by way of tier one data releases since his FOMC press conference (Friday’s core PCE appeared to be in line with Gov Waller’s estimates).
  • We approach it with the Nov implied rate almost 10bp lower than prior to the Sep 18 FOMC announcement but at levels very similar prior to Powell taking the podium. That should limit impact from similar rhetoric that a 50bp cut earlier this month doesn't set the tone for the cadence of rate cuts ahead.
  • Fed Gov. Bowman (voter) is also set to speak on the economic outlook and policy today at 0850ET (text + Q&A) but we have heard from her in detail since her dissent to the Fed cutting 50bps. 
274 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • Fed Funds implied rates have seen surprisingly large spillover stemming from German regional CPI releases which have pushed back against dovish surprises seen in last week’s French and Spanish prints.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 36bp Nov, 73bp Dec, 105bp Jan and 171bp June.
  • Latest Fedspeak came from Musalem (’25) in an FT interview printed Friday afternoon. He wants to see the Fed revert to cutting rates “gradually” as the US economy could react “very vigorously” to looser financial conditions. In similar comments to Gov Waller: “I’m attuned to the fact that the economy could weaken more than I currently expect [and] the labour market could weaken more than I currently expect […] If that were the case, then a faster pace of rate reductions might be appropriate.”
  • Fed Chair Powell headlines today’s docket, with a luncheon address at the NABE conference in Nashville (text + Q&A). Impact could be limited by the fact there has been relatively little by way of tier one data releases since his FOMC press conference (Friday’s core PCE appeared to be in line with Gov Waller’s estimates).
  • We approach it with the Nov implied rate almost 10bp lower than prior to the Sep 18 FOMC announcement but at levels very similar prior to Powell taking the podium. That should limit impact from similar rhetoric that a 50bp cut earlier this month doesn't set the tone for the cadence of rate cuts ahead.
  • Fed Gov. Bowman (voter) is also set to speak on the economic outlook and policy today at 0850ET (text + Q&A) but we have heard from her in detail since her dissent to the Fed cutting 50bps.