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STIR: Global FI Recovery Sees Dovish BoE Pricing Move, 63bp Of Cuts Through 25

STIR
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The recovery from lows in core global FI markets helps GBP STIRs further away from hawkish session extremes.

  • BoE-dated OIS last shows 2.5bp of cuts for next month, 27bp of cuts through March, 45.5bp through June and 63.5bp through December ’25.
  • Pricing is little changed to 8bp more dovish on the day.
  • Still, December ’25 meeting pricing is just under 30bp more hawkish than levels that prevailed ahead of the Budget.
  • SONIA futures flat to +8.0, belly of the strip outperforms.
  • As noted elsewhere, there is some focus on BoE Governor Bailey’s Mansion House address later today (text due 18:00 London), although we don’t expect much in the way of actionable comments given the proximity to the latest BoE decision and lack of meaningful, fresh information received since.
  • Equally, we don’t expect much in the way of market moving commentary from Chancellor Reeves. She has already outlined her pension system shakeup, which isn’t expected to have much impact on the wider gilt demand profile.

BoE Meeting

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The recovery from lows in core global FI markets helps GBP STIRs further away from hawkish session extremes.

  • BoE-dated OIS last shows 2.5bp of cuts for next month, 27bp of cuts through March, 45.5bp through June and 63.5bp through December ’25.
  • Pricing is little changed to 8bp more dovish on the day.
  • Still, December ’25 meeting pricing is just under 30bp more hawkish than levels that prevailed ahead of the Budget.
  • SONIA futures flat to +8.0, belly of the strip outperforms.
  • As noted elsewhere, there is some focus on BoE Governor Bailey’s Mansion House address later today (text due 18:00 London), although we don’t expect much in the way of actionable comments given the proximity to the latest BoE decision and lack of meaningful, fresh information received since.
  • Equally, we don’t expect much in the way of market moving commentary from Chancellor Reeves. She has already outlined her pension system shakeup, which isn’t expected to have much impact on the wider gilt demand profile.

BoE Meeting

Keep reading...Show less